Like his fellow strongmen Vladimir Putin and Hugo Chavez, Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega is routinely excoriated in the international media, sometimes for good reason. There’s no doubt that Ortega employs heavy-handed tactics against his opponents, tilts the electoral playing field in his favor, uses state power to advance the business interests of his friends, and from time to time lambastes “U.S. imperialism.” But this weekend, the guerrilla comandante-turned-politician is likely to coast to re-election.
Personal charisma -- so often the explanation for the unlikely popularity of certain leaders -- is not the answer to the Ortega enigma. A tedious speaker, the 66-year-old Ortega rarely holds press conferences. Nor is Daniel, as his admirers call him, a shining intellect, having cut short his formal education to engage in clandestine revolutionary warfare. But he is smart enough to learn from his mistakes and adjust his strategies to changing international and domestic realities. An astute and tireless political operator, Ortega has survived by seizing opportunities to broaden his political alliances and to debilitate and divide his opponents.
The meaning of Ortega’s rebirth might depend on the eye of the beholder. For some free marketers, Ortega’s brand of state capitalism is a worrisome precedent, even though it has garnered support from the local private sector. And liberal-democrats throughout the Western Hemisphere are alarmed by the erosion of certain constitutional norms -- including, notably, an end to the prohibition of presidential re-election. But Ortega might also offer some inspiration to those on the political left searching for an economic model that combines stability with distributional equity. And development practitioners of all political persuasions might benefit from understanding how Ortega’s Sandinista-led government has apparently been more effective at managing public sector resources than was its more efficiency-oriented, conservative predecessor.
The Education of a Revolutionary
After waging an armed insurrection that toppled the discredited Somoza dynasty in 1979, the socialist Sandinistas promptly ran the Nicaraguan economy into the ground. (The anti-Sandinista violence of U.S.-backed “contra” fighters contributed significantly to the destruction.) Massive expropriations of private property drove the private sector out of Nicaragua and hyperinflation increased popular support for opposition parties. Ortega was ousted in the 1990 elections.
Regaining power after winning the 2006 presidential race by a narrow margin, Ortega chose to hitch his future to free-market orthodoxy. In each quarter during his presidency, the International Monetary Fund, as required by its standard loan procedures, has monitored and approved of Nicaragua’s economic performance. And the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank continue to help Nicaragua design and finance social programs and infrastructure improvements.
IMF approval has reassured private investors that Ortega will not return to the bad old days of the 1980s. Under the new, reformed Ortega, there have been few property expropriations and no irresponsible monetary policies that might have eroded capital values. Notwithstanding occasional rhetoric outbursts against “imperialism,” Ortega has kept Nicaraguan policy well within the boundaries of the U.S.-Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). By far, the United States remains Nicaragua’s main trading partner.
During his years in opposition, Ortega routinely denounced “sweatshops.” Today, his government courts international investment in Nicaragua’s free-trade zones, which manufacture blue jeans and t-shirts for U.S. consumers. After a dip during the 2008 global economic downturn, employment in Nicaragua’s tax-free industrial parks has jumped this year and now provides close to 100,000 jobs for the urban poor. Abiding by IMF guidelines and CAFTA incentives, and stimulated by high international prices for its coffee, beef, and sugar exports, the Nicaraguan economy expanded by 4 or 5 percent during 2010-2011 -- a respectable performance.
This record of economic growth will surely help Ortega in this weekend’s elections. But he will also benefit from the weakness of the two main opposition candidates. One is Arnoldo Aleman, who served as president from 1997-2002 but was later convicted of corruption and even denied an entry visa by the United States. Aleman’s candidacy divided and demoralized the opposition; credible rumors suggest that Ortega encouraged and possibly helped to fund Aleman’s campaign. The other opposition candidate is Fabio Gadea, a folksy, 79-year-old radio personality. Gadea is backed by an amalgam of center-right and center-left parties, none of which have enough money or organizational heft to mount a strong campaign. In past contests, the Sandinistas’ opponents ran effective anti-communist scare campaigns.
But with their light pink banners featuring a smiling Ortega and inclusive slogans like “Christian, Socialist, and Solidarity – Unity for the Common Welfare,” the Sandinistas dispelled the fear factor this year. Ortega’s non-confrontational, moderate tone appealed to the 40 percent of voters who define themselves as “centrists” – the key swing voters absolutely essential to any candidate challenging the Sandinistas. Pre-election opinion polls showed these non-partisan voters lining up behind Ortega in unprecedented numbers.
From: Foreign Affairs Magazine
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